In general, scientists are coming down on the side of stopping mortality. This means getting the vaccine to the people whose risk of death is highest. Various studies have looked at how much comorbidities impact the risk of death and whether people who have COPD or diabetes or hypertension are more at risk than people of "advanced age". So far the research is showing that advanced age trumps all. Specifically, age beyond 70 years.
Most published studies, perhaps all, rank ages in decades: 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+. I have yet to see a study that uses different age ranges (55-64, 65-74, 75-84, etc), so whether the risk of death rises dramatically between 74 and 75 is undetermined in the published literature. 75 years old is just not a critical marker of anything.
And yet. Looking at the immunization priorities across our country and also in some other countries (UK, USA), the age of 75 is frequently used as a cut-off point. My guess is that it's political. There is the original issue of whether stopping deaths or stopping spread is more important, and there are groups with some political power who want to justify going to the front of the line. Politicians are trying to compromise; if you move one group to the front then you have to move another group to the rear.
So, if you start looking at stopping the spread, who become the priority groups? Well, kids have been ruled out on this one, nobody ranks kids as being the most important group. Likewise for teenagers. Even though the most mobile groups in our modern society are probably school kids and teenagers. So healthcare workers go to the top of the list, especially if they are working with old people. Then a bun fight breaks out; if you're going to protect this healthcare group then why not that one? Who has more power to sway the case, low-paid personal care workers, better-paid and organized trained nurses, or highly trained and politically powerful doctors? And if doctors go to the front of the line, why not dentists? Pharmacists? And of course their employees the dental hygienists and pharmacy technicians…
When the vaccine distribution first started in December, the media loved to display photos of young photogenic healthcare workers getting their jab. God forbid we show an old lady's flabby arm being jabbed. Old women are better viewed masked and gowned behind the thick plate glass of nursing home windows.
Different provinces have worked out different compromises and timelines. Here in Nova Scotia, my age group 70-74, goes to the back of line. People over 75, people in nursing homes, anyone doing anything in healthcare, truckers, meat packers and host of others ("food supply security") take precedence over everyone under the age of 75 who is not in any of those special categories or not in a long term care facility.
Furthermore, looking at the rate at which vaccinations are being distributed, Nova Scotia ranks lowest of all provinces and territories. Currently the average rate is 2.4% (roughly) for the entire country and 1.3% for Nova Scotia (as of today, on the CTV News Covid vaccine tracker). Our phases of distribution (1, 2, and 3) are considerably later than any other province. I read one source that said that Phase 3 (my phase) won't happen until the fall, in spite of PM Trudeau's assurance that everyone who wants it will be vaccinated by September. [I accidentally transposed the 'r' and the first 'u' in his name and briefly considered leaving it that way ;-)]
I am pretty sure my sons living in other provinces will get vaccinated long before I do. One of my sons is an aerial fire fighter, I am pretty sure the provincial government he will be working for will make damn certain he is designated an essential worker and he will get vaccinated before his training in the spring. The other two live in Covid hot spots where vaccine is way more available than in my little province that worked damn hard to contain and keep out the virus.
It's all politics and who holds power to sway politicians.
Most published studies, perhaps all, rank ages in decades: 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, 80+. I have yet to see a study that uses different age ranges (55-64, 65-74, 75-84, etc), so whether the risk of death rises dramatically between 74 and 75 is undetermined in the published literature. 75 years old is just not a critical marker of anything.
And yet. Looking at the immunization priorities across our country and also in some other countries (UK, USA), the age of 75 is frequently used as a cut-off point. My guess is that it's political. There is the original issue of whether stopping deaths or stopping spread is more important, and there are groups with some political power who want to justify going to the front of the line. Politicians are trying to compromise; if you move one group to the front then you have to move another group to the rear.
So, if you start looking at stopping the spread, who become the priority groups? Well, kids have been ruled out on this one, nobody ranks kids as being the most important group. Likewise for teenagers. Even though the most mobile groups in our modern society are probably school kids and teenagers. So healthcare workers go to the top of the list, especially if they are working with old people. Then a bun fight breaks out; if you're going to protect this healthcare group then why not that one? Who has more power to sway the case, low-paid personal care workers, better-paid and organized trained nurses, or highly trained and politically powerful doctors? And if doctors go to the front of the line, why not dentists? Pharmacists? And of course their employees the dental hygienists and pharmacy technicians…
When the vaccine distribution first started in December, the media loved to display photos of young photogenic healthcare workers getting their jab. God forbid we show an old lady's flabby arm being jabbed. Old women are better viewed masked and gowned behind the thick plate glass of nursing home windows.
Different provinces have worked out different compromises and timelines. Here in Nova Scotia, my age group 70-74, goes to the back of line. People over 75, people in nursing homes, anyone doing anything in healthcare, truckers, meat packers and host of others ("food supply security") take precedence over everyone under the age of 75 who is not in any of those special categories or not in a long term care facility.
Furthermore, looking at the rate at which vaccinations are being distributed, Nova Scotia ranks lowest of all provinces and territories. Currently the average rate is 2.4% (roughly) for the entire country and 1.3% for Nova Scotia (as of today, on the CTV News Covid vaccine tracker). Our phases of distribution (1, 2, and 3) are considerably later than any other province. I read one source that said that Phase 3 (my phase) won't happen until the fall, in spite of PM Trudeau's assurance that everyone who wants it will be vaccinated by September. [I accidentally transposed the 'r' and the first 'u' in his name and briefly considered leaving it that way ;-)]
I am pretty sure my sons living in other provinces will get vaccinated long before I do. One of my sons is an aerial fire fighter, I am pretty sure the provincial government he will be working for will make damn certain he is designated an essential worker and he will get vaccinated before his training in the spring. The other two live in Covid hot spots where vaccine is way more available than in my little province that worked damn hard to contain and keep out the virus.
It's all politics and who holds power to sway politicians.
1 comment:
I agree Annie, no idea of a rollout here and our cases are climbing and hell, community spread right now. And the election is Saturday and some saying the polling stations are unsafe.
We have a fresh hell here.
XO
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